双环传动(002472)：公司业绩符合预期 电驱齿轮龙头强者恒强

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 8.781 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.76%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.024 billion yuan, up 25.42% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.039 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.42% year-on-year and a decline of 15.76% quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit for the same period was 286 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.96% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7.88% [1][2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.065 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.47%, and a net profit of 276 million yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 24.70% [1][2] Financial Performance - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 31.04%, an increase of 6.46 percentage points year-on-year and 7.08 percentage points quarter-on-quarter; for Q1 2025, the gross margin was 26.82%, up 4.17 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The operating expense ratio for Q4 2024 was 13.13%, an increase of 2.92 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to increases in management and R&D expense ratios; for Q1 2025, the operating expense ratio was 10.65%, up 0.74 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company recorded asset impairment losses of 46 million yuan and credit impairment losses of 13 million yuan in Q4 2024 [2] Industry Outlook - The company is positioned as a leader in electric drive gears, benefiting from the ongoing electrification of vehicles and the reshaping of the automotive gear market [3] - The company has established a strong presence in the precision reducer market for industrial robots, covering a wide range of applications and maintaining partnerships with leading domestic robot manufacturers [3] - The establishment of Huanqu Technology and the acquisition of Sanduo Le are expected to enhance the company's capabilities in the consumer gear sector, broadening its customer base [3] Profit Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2026, estimating net profits of 1.269 billion yuan and 1.557 billion yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 1.874 billion yuan [3] - Corresponding EPS estimates are 1.50 yuan, 1.84 yuan, and 2.21 yuan for 2025-2027, with price-to-earnings ratios of 22.50, 18.34, and 15.24, respectively [3]