投资组合如何应对贸易战？全球最大主权基金的答案：熬！哪怕意味着损失6000亿

Core Viewpoint - The world's largest sovereign wealth fund, the Norwegian Government Pension Fund, adopts a strategy of "waiting it out" in response to potential global economic recession and asset value decline due to trade wars [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - CEO Nicolai Tangen emphasizes a long-term investment perspective and diversification, believing that "time can heal all wounds" and lead to good returns [2]. - Approximately half of the fund's assets are allocated to U.S. stocks and bonds, primarily in equities, with the fund's performance this year remaining flat due to exposure to European markets [2]. - Tangen warns that if the global trade system fractures due to tariff barriers, the fund could face losses exceeding one-third of its value, potentially amounting to $600 billion [2]. Group 2: Historical Context and Alternatives - Historical analysis suggests that broad stock investments have generally outperformed bonds, cash, and inflation over the past century, even after significant market downturns [2]. - James Mackintosh notes that the current environment may represent a new era, where historical patterns could repeat, leading to significant asset price declines [3]. - Alternatives to the "wait it out" strategy include investing in gold as a hedge against potential short-term inflation caused by tariffs, and active trading for those who can manage it [4]. Group 3: Challenges of Active Trading - Gold, while a classic hedge, may underperform if market conditions improve, as its price has already risen by approximately 60% [5]. - The size of the Norwegian fund makes active trading impractical, as most assets track indices with only a small portion subject to Tangen's team's adjustments [5]. - Active investing requires significant time and flexibility, and not all investors can outperform the market, as every buyer must have a seller [5].