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酒鬼酒(000799):动销疲软 静待消费环境回暖

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant declines in revenue and net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025, indicating a challenging market environment and weak sales performance across key product lines [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.42 billion yuan, down 49.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 10 million yuan, down 97.7% year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2024, revenue was 230 million yuan, a decrease of 66.2%, with a net profit of -40 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 163.7% [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue was 340 million yuan, down 30.3% year-on-year, and net profit was 30 million yuan, down 56.8% year-on-year [1]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 71.4%, a decrease of 7.0 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 0.9%, down 18.5 percentage points [2]. - The company’s expense ratio for the year was 48.9%, an increase of 13.9 percentage points, with specific increases in management, sales, and R&D expenses [2]. Product and Market Strategy - The company plans to focus on product structure optimization and deep market operations in 2025, aiming to enhance operational efficiency in core markets [3]. - A "2+2+2" strategic product system will be established, with plans to eliminate 50% of inefficient SKUs and optimize price distribution [3]. - Initial signs of improvement are noted with a 95% year-on-year increase in sales indicators, suggesting that reforms are beginning to take effect [3]. Future Outlook - The company has adjusted revenue and gross margin forecasts downward for 2025-2026 while increasing expense ratio expectations [3]. - Projected earnings per share for 2025-2027 are 0.53, 0.62, and 0.96 yuan, respectively, down from previous estimates [3]. - The company maintains a target equity value of 14.9 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 45.89 yuan, with a buy rating [3].