黄金单日暴跌6%！做市商“黑手”再现，这次谁成了冤大头？

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the gold market, characterized by a sharp decline in gold prices, raises concerns reminiscent of the market turmoil experienced in March 2020, indicating potential risks that need to be monitored closely [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The COMEX gold inventory has seen a significant outflow, with 1.86 million ounces (approximately 85.58 tons) leaving the market, and a total outflow of 3.37 million ounces in April, suggesting a shift in supply-demand dynamics [1]. - There has been a notable trend of profit-taking, with large amounts of gold flowing back from customer accounts to market makers, exerting downward pressure on prices [2]. - The current situation mirrors the timeline of the 2020 market crash, with a similar four-month period of decline starting from December 10, 2022 [5]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Major Western market makers have been bullish on gold, with predictions from UBS and Goldman Sachs suggesting prices could exceed $3,500 and $3,700 respectively by year-end, raising questions about the underlying motivations behind such optimism [6]. - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, including a 6% drop in one day, aligns with expectations of market makers attempting to regain control over pricing [5][6]. Group 3: ETF and Trading Activity - The GLD ETF experienced its largest single-day redemption since 2011, with $1.3 billion withdrawn, indicating a significant shift in market sentiment and panic selling [7]. - The trading volume of GLD surged, ranking third among all ETFs, which is unusual for gold ETFs, suggesting a heightened state of market distress [7]. - Market makers are likely employing strategies across multiple markets, including the GLD ETF, to create a cascading effect that drives prices down [7][8]. Group 4: Chinese Market Response - Unlike previous market downturns, the Chinese market has not reacted with panic; instead, many investors view the price drop as a buying opportunity, reflecting a different perception of gold's value [8]. Group 5: Overall Market Complexity - The current gold market is characterized by unprecedented complexity, with vulnerabilities exposed in both the London spot market and the New York gold reserve system since significant buying began in December 2022 [11].