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This Monster Dividend Growth Stock Is Up 86% in the Last Year
PMIPMI(US:PM) The Motley Foolยท2025-05-04 09:10

Core Viewpoint - The tobacco sector is experiencing a resurgence, driven by the growth of new-generation nicotine products rather than traditional cigarettes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The tobacco sector had been neglected by investors due to volume declines and ESG investment mandates [1]. - New-generation nicotine products, such as nicotine pouches, are leading the market recovery, with Philip Morris International (PM) capturing 42% of its net revenue from this category [2]. - Philip Morris International's stock has increased by 86% over the past 12 months, providing substantial returns for shareholders [2]. Group 2: Product Categories - Three major nicotine categories are replacing traditional cigarettes: electronic vaping, heat-not-burn tobacco, and nicotine pouches [3]. - Philip Morris International leads in the heat-not-burn category with its Iqos brand, which holds a 77% market share globally [4]. - The Zyn nicotine pouch brand is growing rapidly, with a 53% year-over-year increase in the U.S. and 182% internationally, excluding Nordic markets [5]. - The VeeV vaping devices are currently small in volume but are experiencing 100% year-over-year growth [6]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Philip Morris International is seeing stable volume from its traditional cigarette business, with a 1.1% year-over-year increase in volume in Q1 [7]. - The combustibles segment has shown gross profit growth of 6.6% year-over-year in 2024 and 5.3% in Q1 of 2025, contributing to earnings growth [7]. - Operating income reached a record $13.9 billion over the past 12 months, primarily due to stable volumes and pricing power [8]. - Free cash flow is expected to align with operating income as manufacturing investments for alternative nicotine brands are completed [8]. Group 4: Dividend Growth Potential - Philip Morris International's stock currently has a dividend yield of 3.1%, down from nearly 6% in late 2020 [12]. - The company has a dividend per share of $5.35 and free cash flow per share of $6.55, indicating the ability to sustain dividend growth despite current cash flow challenges [13]. - The company is projected to grow its dividend per share by 5% annually for the next four years, supported by increasing free cash flow [14]. - As free cash flow per share increases, the company will be positioned to consistently grow its dividend payouts, making it an attractive option for dividend-seeking investors [14].