Key Takeaways Altria's on! shipments rose 26.5% in Q2, lifting oral tobacco share to 8.7% and boosting margins.Philip Morris lifted 2025 EPS guidance to $7.43-$7.56, targeting 13-15% year-over-year growth.Philip Morris achieved $500M in cost savings in H1 2025, advancing toward a $2B efficiency goal.Altria Group, Inc. ((MO) and Philip Morris International Inc. ((PM) stand as two of the most recognized names in the global tobacco industry. While Altria primarily operates within the United States, Philip Morr ...

2025年08月24日 证券研究报告 | 美股市场速览 回调后再度发动，中小盘明显占优 行业研究·海外市场专题 美股 弱于大市·维持 证券分析师：王学恒 证券分析师：张熙，CFA 010-88005382 0755-81982090 wangxueh@guosen.com.cn zhangxi4@guosen.com.cn S0980514030002 S0980522040001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 数据速览 价格走势：回调后再度发动，中小盘明显占优 资金流向：整体流入接近停滞，行业间分化较大 本周，标普500成分股估算资金流（涨跌额 x 成交量）为+1.7（亿美元，下同），上周为+75.8，近4周为-75.0，近13周为+209.2。 18个行业资金流入，6个行业资金流出。资金流入的行业有：汽车与汽车零部件（+11.0）、综合金融（+4.6）、银行（+3.8）、资本品（+3.3）、医疗保健设备 与服务（+3.3）；资金流出的行业主要有：软件与服务（-29.9）、半导体产品与设备（-7.7）、食品与主要用品零售（-4.7）、技术硬件与设备（-2.3）、媒 体与娱乐（-1.1）。 盈 ...

Key Takeaways Philip Morris trades at a forward P/E of 20.93X, above the industry and sector averages.Smoke-free products made up 41% of revenues in Q2, growing 15.2% y/y, led by IQOS, ZYN and VEEV.Philip Morris targets $2B in cost efficiencies between 2024 and 2026.Philip Morris International Inc. ((PM) is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 20.93X, representing a significant premium compared with the Zacks Tobacco industry average of 15.31X and the broader Consumer ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Underperform" rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market continues to reach new highs, with small-cap stocks showing strong performance [3] - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.9%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.8% [3] - 18 out of 24 sectors experienced gains, with notable increases in pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and life sciences (+5.5%) and healthcare equipment and services (+4.2%) [3] Price Trends - The report highlights that small-cap value stocks (Russell 2000 Value) outperformed small-cap growth stocks, with a rise of 3.4% compared to 2.8% [3] - The sectors with the largest gains include pharmaceuticals and biotechnology (+5.5%), healthcare equipment and services (+4.2%), and durable goods and apparel (+3.6%) [3] - Conversely, sectors that declined include food and staples retailing (-2.4%) and commercial and professional services (-1.4%) [3] Fund Flows - Estimated fund flows for S&P 500 constituents showed a significant increase to +$7.58 billion this week, up from +$1.70 billion last week [4] - The healthcare equipment and services sector saw the highest inflow at +$2.76 billion, followed by media and entertainment (+$1.31 billion) and pharmaceuticals (+$1.09 billion) [4] - Notably, the software and services sector experienced an outflow of -$476 million [4] Earnings Forecast - The report indicates a 0.2% upward adjustment in the 12-month forward EPS expectations for S&P 500 constituents [5] - 22 sectors saw an increase in earnings expectations, with semiconductor products and equipment leading at +0.6% [5] - The energy sector was the only one to experience a downward revision, with a decrease of -0.3% [5] Global Asset Overview - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,450, reflecting a 0.9% increase for the week and a 16.1% increase year-to-date [11] - The Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, rose by 3.1% this week, indicating strong performance in this segment [11] Sector Observations - The healthcare sector recorded a price return of 5.0% this week, outperforming other sectors [16] - The materials sector also performed well, with a 1.8% increase, while the energy sector lagged with only a 0.5% increase [16] - The report notes that the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector had the highest price return at 5.5% [16]

Core Insights - Philip Morris International (PM) is leveraging its ILUMA platform to sustain momentum in its heated tobacco unit (HTU) through the latter half of 2025, with adjusted in-market sales growth for HTUs reaching 11.4% in Q2 2025 [1][7] - The company has expanded ILUMA into over 30 markets, significantly enhancing market share and user adoption, particularly in Europe and Japan [2][3] Sales and Market Performance - In Q2 2025, HTU sales increased by 11.4%, with Europe growing by 9.1% and Japan by 7.8%, attributed to the rollout of ILUMA i and new consumable products [1][7] - ILUMA's expansion has led to an increase in IQOS HTU market share by 1.2 percentage points to 10.9% in Europe, with over 20% share in key cities across 12 markets [2][7] Future Growth Projections - PMI anticipates smoke-free product volume growth of 12-14% in 2025, with the ILUMA upgrade cycle expected to support continued double-digit HTU growth [3] - The second half of 2025 will focus on maintaining rollout momentum while navigating competitive and regulatory challenges [3] Competitive Landscape - Turning Point Brands reported a significant increase in Modern Oral sales, reaching $30.1 million, and raised its revenue target for 2025 to $100-$110 million, emphasizing flavor innovation and retail presence [4] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Philip Morris shares have decreased by 5.7% over the past month, contrasting with the industry's growth of 1.3% [5] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for PM is 21.17X, higher than the industry average of 15.36X [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PM's earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 has increased by 4 cents and 7 cents, respectively, to $7.49 and $8.39 [9]

Core Insights - The iShares U.S. Consumer Staples ETF (IYK) is a passively managed ETF launched on June 12, 2000, designed to provide broad exposure to the Consumer Staples - Broad segment of the equity market [1] - The ETF has amassed assets over $1.36 billion and seeks to match the performance of the Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Goods Index [3] - The ETF has a 12-month trailing dividend yield of 2.49% and annual operating expenses of 0.4% [4] Sector Overview - Consumer Staples - Broad is ranked 15 out of 16 in the Zacks Industry classification, placing it in the bottom 6% [2] - The ETF has a heavy allocation in the Consumer Staples sector, accounting for about 87.5% of the portfolio, with Healthcare and Materials rounding out the top three sectors [5] Holdings and Performance - Procter & Gamble (PG) accounts for approximately 14.82% of total assets, with the top 10 holdings making up about 66.57% of total assets under management [6] - The ETF has a return of roughly 6.81% and is up about 3.67% year-to-date as of August 7, 2025, with a trading range between $63.29 and $72.42 over the last 52 weeks [7] Risk and Alternatives - IYK has a beta of 0.54 and a standard deviation of 12.32% for the trailing three-year period, indicating a medium risk profile [7] - The ETF carries a Zacks ETF Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting it is a reasonable option for investors seeking exposure to the Consumer Staples sector [8] Competitors - Other notable ETFs in the Consumer Staples space include Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) with $7.67 billion in assets and Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) with $16.25 billion in assets [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [6][10]. Core Insights - Recent financial reports from major overseas tobacco companies for H1 2025 show overall stable performance, with new tobacco products continuing to drive growth. British American Tobacco, Philip Morris International, and Japan Tobacco have all raised their annual forecasts [18]. Summary by Relevant Sections British American Tobacco (BAT) - For H1 2025, BAT reported revenues of £12.069 billion, a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year, with new tobacco products accounting for 13.7% of total revenue [2][19]. - The revenue from heated tobacco products was £440 million, showing a slight increase of 0.8%, while the revenue from new oral tobacco products surged by 38.1% to £470 million [20][21]. Philip Morris International (PMI) - PMI's Q2 2025 net revenue reached $10.14 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, with smoke-free tobacco products making up 41.6% of total revenue [3][28]. - The global shipment of heated tobacco units was 38.8 billion, up 9.2% year-on-year, with IQOS market share in Japan increasing to 31.7% [29]. Japan Tobacco - Japan Tobacco reported Q2 2025 revenues of ¥907.6 billion, a 9.4% increase year-on-year, with heated tobacco product shipments rising by 31.2% [4][38]. - The company has adjusted its annual revenue growth forecast to 8.4% and operating profit growth to 14.6% [38]. Altria - Altria's Q2 2025 revenue was $6.1 billion, down 1.7% year-on-year, with oral tobacco product revenue increasing by 5.9% [5][12]. Market Overview - The light industry sector experienced a relative return of +0.16% last week, despite a decline of 1.59% in the overall sector [6][9]. - Furniture retail sales in June increased by 28.7% year-on-year, while building materials sales saw a decline of 8.9% [6][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the home furnishing sector, such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Kuka Home, as well as in the paper and packaging sectors, highlighting Sun Paper and Yutong Technology as key investment opportunities [9][16].

Core Viewpoint - The current earnings season for U.S. consumer stocks has led to an unusual sell-off, despite strong earnings reports, indicating deep-seated market concerns about the sustainability of consumer strength [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - 83% of the 317 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings exceeded expectations, yet stock prices generally fell post-announcement [1]. - Companies like Procter & Gamble (PG) and PepsiCo (PEP) experienced initial stock price increases after reporting strong earnings, but ultimately saw declines in the following days [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - The prevailing market environment suggests a tactical "sell-the-news" approach, with investors opting to take profits rather than establish new long positions [2]. - Negative earnings surprises have led to significant stock price drops, with companies like Philip Morris International (PM) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) facing severe sell-offs following disappointing results [4]. Group 3: Exceptions to the Trend - A few companies managed to resist the broader sell-off, including Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Wingstop (WING), and Builders FirstSource (BLDR), which showed resilience due to specific business strengths [5]. - Despite these exceptions, the overall sentiment in the consumer sector remains pessimistic, with investors wary of future economic uncertainties [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Weaker than Market" rating for the U.S. stock market [1] Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced a sudden pullback influenced by non-farm employment data, with the S&P 500 declining by 2.4% and the Nasdaq by 2.2% [3] - Among sectors, large-cap value stocks outperformed large-cap growth and small-cap stocks, indicating a preference for stability in turbulent market conditions [3] - The report highlights that three sectors saw gains while 21 sectors faced declines, with utilities, food and staples retailing, and media and entertainment being the only sectors to rise [3] Summary by Sections Price Trends - The S&P 500 fell by 2.4% and the Nasdaq by 2.2% this week, with large-cap value stocks declining by 1.8% compared to a 3.1% drop in large-cap growth stocks [3] - Utilities (+1.6%), food and staples retailing (+0.9%), and media and entertainment (+0.2%) were the only sectors to increase, while transportation (-5.9%), materials (-5.1%), and retail (-4.8%) faced the largest declines [3] Fund Flows - The estimated fund flow for S&P 500 constituents was -$16.95 billion this week, a significant increase from the previous week's -$2.2 billion [4] - Media and entertainment (+$1.59 billion), utilities (+$0.27 billion), and food and staples retailing (+$0.042 billion) saw inflows, while healthcare equipment and services (-$3.47 billion) and financials (-$4.15 billion) experienced the largest outflows [4] Earnings Forecast - The report indicates a 0.6% upward adjustment in the 12-month EPS forecast for S&P 500 constituents, with 18 sectors seeing an increase and 5 sectors experiencing downgrades [5] - Retail (+3.3%), media and entertainment (+2.0%), and technology hardware (+1.5%) led the upward revisions, while healthcare equipment and services faced a significant downgrade of -3.6% [5]

Key Takeaways PM's smoke-free business made up 41% of net revenues and more than 42% of gross profit in Q2 2025.IQOS saw 11.4% global sales growth, with notable market share gains in Japan and Europe.ZYN posted 26% U.S. growth in Q2 and 43% global shipment growth, led by strong U.S. demand.Philip Morris International’s (PM) smoke-free business is gaining scale, and the performance of its flagship products, IQOS and ZYN, is central to this trajectory. In the second quarter of 2025, the company’s smoke-free b ...