【明辉说油】中国成品油市场2024年回顾与2025年展望

Core Insights - In 2024, China's refined oil market is experiencing significant changes, with fuel consumption in the transportation sector reaching its peak earlier than expected, leading to a transition from growth to decline in gasoline consumption [1][5] - The demand for refined oil is projected to continue declining in 2025, with an expected trend of "two declines and one increase" in consumption [1][25] Group 1: Refined Oil Consumption Trends - In 2024, the total refined oil consumption in China is estimated at 358.9 million tons, a decrease of 2.8% from the previous year, with gasoline and diesel consumption both declining [1][2] - Gasoline consumption is projected to decrease by 2.0% to 152 million tons, while aviation kerosene consumption is expected to grow by 13.0% [1][6] - Diesel consumption is anticipated to drop significantly, with a decline of 6.5% to 168 million tons, marking the largest decrease in recent years [12][22] Group 2: Impact of New Energy Vehicles - The rapid development of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is a key factor driving the decline in gasoline consumption, with NEV sales reaching 12.87 million units in 2024, accounting for 40.9% of the market [6][8] - The shift towards NEVs is further supported by government policies promoting the scrapping of old gasoline vehicles, which is expected to peak in 2024 [8][23] Group 3: Aviation Fuel Demand - Aviation kerosene consumption is projected to reach 39 million tons in 2024, reflecting a growth of 13% compared to the previous year, driven by increased domestic and international air travel [9][32] - The number of flights and passenger transport volume is expected to rise, contributing to the robust growth in aviation fuel demand [9][11] Group 4: Diesel Consumption Challenges - Diesel consumption is facing multiple pressures, including a slowdown in infrastructure investment and a decline in the real estate sector, leading to a significant drop in demand [12][34] - The increasing adoption of alternative fuels, such as liquefied natural gas (LNG), is further exacerbating the decline in diesel consumption, with LNG heavy truck sales experiencing a 15% increase in 2024 [13][15] Group 5: Refining Industry Adjustments - The refining industry in China is undergoing structural adjustments, with new refining capacities being introduced while older facilities are being shut down, resulting in a slight increase in total refining capacity to 923 million tons per year [16][18] - The export of refined oil is expected to decline due to reduced demand and lower export tax rebates, with actual export volumes decreasing by 527,000 tons in 2024 [19][22] Group 6: Policy Impacts - Government policies aimed at promoting the replacement of old vehicles and encouraging the use of new energy vehicles are expected to accelerate the transition towards a greener transportation sector [23][24] - The introduction of the "2024-2025 Energy Saving and Carbon Reduction Action Plan" is anticipated to further suppress diesel consumption and promote the adoption of cleaner energy alternatives [24][34] Group 7: Future Outlook - The refined oil market in China is expected to continue facing challenges in 2025, with overall consumption projected to decline to 345 million tons, reflecting ongoing structural adjustments and the impact of alternative energy sources [25][26] - The aviation fuel demand is likely to remain the only segment showing growth, while gasoline and diesel consumption will continue to decline [31][32]