越南工厂恐慌加剧，“客户已开始撤单，再等90天有何用？”

Core Viewpoint - The unpredictable tariff policy of President Trump has significantly impacted Vietnam's export industry, creating uncertainty and fear among workers and factory owners [1][2][4]. Group 1: Economic Impact - Vietnam's manufacturing sector has experienced rapid growth over the past 15 years, but the uncertainty surrounding tariffs has weakened its reliance on exports to the U.S. [2][5]. - The average profit margin for factories in Vietnam is only 5%, making them vulnerable to changes in tariff policies [1][5]. - Vietnam's economy has seen an average annual growth rate of around 7% over the past decade, with exports to the U.S. accounting for 30% of total exports and 27% of nominal GDP [5][10]. Group 2: Factory Operations and Employment - Many factories are increasing production to fulfill orders before the end of the 90-day tariff suspension, but some U.S. clients are canceling or delaying orders [1][6]. - Workers are facing job insecurity, with some factories already laying off employees or freezing hiring due to the uncertainty [1][6]. - Companies like Mian Apparel, which employs 12,000 workers, are experiencing pressure from clients to expedite deliveries amid the tariff uncertainty [6][9]. Group 3: Client Relationships and Market Strategy - Clients are beginning to cancel orders, leading to anxiety among factory owners who rely heavily on U.S. customers [6][9]. - Factory owners are exploring alternative markets in the Middle East and Europe to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [9][10]. - The high tariffs could lead to increased prices for American consumers, as factories may need to lower their net profits to remain competitive [11]. Group 4: Specific Industry Insights - Nike produces about 50% of its footwear and 28% of its apparel in Vietnam, while Adidas relies on Vietnam for 39% of its footwear and 18% of its apparel [10]. - The average tariff rate on Vietnamese footwear was previously 13.6%, and for apparel, it was 18.8%, but the new tariffs could increase these rates significantly [10]. - Vietnam is a major supplier for the furniture industry, with 26.5% of U.S. furniture imports coming from Vietnam in 2023 [10].