Guosen Securities(SZ:002736) 智通财经网·2025-05-05 01:49Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities highlights the significant uncertainty brought by the US tariff policy on the global economy and stock markets, suggesting that market volatility is likely to be a common occurrence [1][2][3]. US Market Insights - The new US tariff policy, implemented in April, has increased the probability of a recession in the US, with a projected GDP growth rate for the year revised down to 1.4% from 2.2% [2]. - The cargo volume at Long Beach and Los Angeles ports is expected to decline by 35-44% starting from the second week of May [2]. - E-commerce platforms like Amazon and TEMU have begun raising prices on certain goods since late April [2]. - Core PCE inflation has been revised up to 3.0% from 2.6% [2]. - If the tariff policy remains in place beyond May, inflation data is expected to rise further in the second half of the year [2]. A-share Market Insights - The A-share market is transitioning from being driven by sentiment to being driven by performance, with social financing data showing a year-on-year increase and real estate prices in first-tier cities recovering [2]. - Despite a rebound in real estate sales in March and improvements in retail sales, the PMI in April significantly declined due to the impact of the tariff war [2]. - The performance-driven market is anticipated to be the main theme in the second quarter [2]. Hong Kong Market Insights - Investors are advised to hold positions without increasing their stakes, particularly when the Hang Seng Index is above 22,374 points, based on historical win rates [3]. Sector Recommendations - Cloud Computing: Expected to benefit directly from deployments like DeepSeek, with anticipation for strong Q1 earnings reports [4]. - New Energy Vehicles and Components: Continuous upward revisions in earnings for many companies in this sector, recognized as one of the most growth-oriented sectors in the Hong Kong market [4]. - New Consumption and Pharmaceuticals: New consumption is characterized by a large young fan base and strong global expansion potential, while the pharmaceutical sector is noted for its stable demand [4]. - Dividend Stocks: Stable earnings from operators, banks, and public utilities, with bond-like assets benefiting from a rebound after two months of adjustment [4]. - Earnings Upgrades: Focus on stocks with upgraded earnings forecasts, as the rise in the Hong Kong market is closely tied to strong earnings [4].