科沃斯(603486)：控费效果明显 盈利能力改善

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to improve its profitability in 2024 and Q1 2025, with cost reduction and efficiency enhancement becoming evident, leading to an upgrade in investment rating to "Buy" [1] Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenue of 16.542 billion yuan (+6.71%) and net profit of 806 million yuan (+31.7%) for 2024, with Q4 2024 revenue reaching 6.316 billion yuan (+27.07%) and net profit of 191 million yuan (+2178.04%) [2] - For Q1 2025, revenue is projected at 3.858 billion yuan (+11.06%) and net profit at 475 million yuan (+59.43%) [2] Earnings Forecast - The company has revised its earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 to 2.76, 3.16, and 3.58 yuan per share, reflecting growth rates of +97.2%, +14.3%, and +13.2% respectively [2] - The target price has been adjusted to 67.25 yuan, based on a 25x price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025, indicating a premium valuation due to the company's extensive involvement in the robotics supply chain [2] Brand Performance - The company’s dual-brand strategy is driving growth, with revenues from the Ecovacs brand service robots and the Tineco brand smart home appliances reaching 8.08 billion yuan and 8.06 billion yuan respectively, showing increases of +5.22% and +10.87% [3] - Global shipments of Ecovacs service robots and Tineco floor washers reached 2.95 million and 4.14 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of +16.9% and +28.3% [3] Geographic Revenue Breakdown - Domestic and international revenues for 2024 are projected at 9.43 billion yuan and 7.11 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of +5.00% and +9.06% respectively [3] - The European market significantly contributes to overseas growth, with revenues from Ecovacs and Tineco in Europe increasing by +51.6% and +64.0% [3] Profitability Improvement - The company's gross margin improved by 2 percentage points in 2024, with the Ecovacs brand's gross margin increasing by 4.1 percentage points [4] - The reduction in sales expense ratio by 3.8 percentage points is attributed to more precise marketing strategies, leading to a decrease in advertising and platform service fees as a percentage of revenue [4] - The company reported a fair value gain of 141 million yuan in Q1 2025, with approximately 110 million yuan resulting from changes in accounting methods for equity investments [4]