美元加息人民币升值还是贬值？看完这篇文章你就懂了！

Core Insights - The relationship between the US interest rate hikes and the RMB exchange rate is complex and not straightforward, influenced by various economic factors and international politics [1][4] - The Federal Reserve's decision to raise the federal funds rate acts as a significant shock to global financial markets, particularly affecting countries with close trade ties to China [1][2] Group 1: Impact of US Interest Rate Hikes - When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the cost of borrowing in USD increases, prompting investors to reassess their asset allocations [2] - A hypothetical scenario illustrates that if a company issues a $100 billion bond in China, with $50 billion purchased by US investors, the rising borrowing costs could lead to shifts in investment strategies [2] Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - If the RMB appreciates against the USD, Chinese investors may prefer holding USD assets for higher returns; conversely, if the RMB depreciates, they may shift towards RMB assets [4] - The RMB's fluctuations are primarily driven by market supply and demand, influenced by a basket of currencies, and not solely determined by US interest rate changes [4] - The ongoing trade relations between China and the US, particularly in the context of US protectionist policies, can exert pressure on the RMB exchange rate [4] Group 3: Future Outlook for RMB - Despite potential depreciation, the strong economic foundation and growth potential of China provide a basis for RMB appreciation in the future [4] - As China's economy continues to grow steadily and reforms progress, the RMB exchange rate is expected to stabilize at a more reasonable level [4]