美国股债汇三者难平衡 贸易战若持续美国将迎滞胀

Group 1 - The U.S. added 177,000 non-farm jobs in April, exceeding the expected increase of 130,000, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [1] - Despite strong job growth, there are indications of employment pressure among U.S. residents, with many struggling to find work after being laid off [1] - The impact of Trump's trade policies is still unfolding, with significant layoffs in the federal government and potential supply chain disruptions affecting major retailers like Walmart and Target [1] Group 2 - Concerns have been raised about the reliability of U.S. economic data, which is perceived to serve Wall Street rather than reflect the realities of residents' lives [2] - Warren Buffett criticized current U.S. trade policies and highlighted the unsustainable nature of the fiscal deficit, emphasizing the risks of currency devaluation [2] - Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves reached a record high of over $347 billion, indicating Buffett's cautious outlook on the U.S. economy [2] Group 3 - The better-than-expected non-farm data temporarily stabilized U.S. stocks, but it led to a downward adjustment in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with Goldman Sachs now predicting a cut in July instead of June [3] - Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that Trump's tariff policies could have significant negative impacts, potentially leading the U.S. into recession [3] - There is a growing disconnect between the seemingly positive economic data and the underlying realities, suggesting that financial risks in the U.S. may need to be carefully monitored [3]