特朗普没想到，日本和美国的贸易谈判，主动权却掌握在中国手里？

Core Viewpoint - Japan's strong stance against the U.S. in trade negotiations signals a shift in its economic strategy, leveraging its relationship with China as a counterbalance to U.S. pressure [2][3][4]. Group 1: Japan's Trade Position - The second round of trade talks between Japan and the U.S. ended without agreement, with Japan's Prime Minister asserting that Japan will not accept increased tariffs on automobiles [2]. - Japan's Finance Minister threatened to use its $1.13 trillion in U.S. Treasury holdings as leverage in negotiations, indicating a significant shift in Japan's approach to U.S. economic pressure [3][7]. - Japan's trade with China has been robust, with trade volume exceeding $400 billion in 2024, making China Japan's largest trading partner for 16 consecutive years [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Strategies - Japan is considering increasing exports to China, where import tariffs on cars are significantly lower than those proposed by the U.S. [5]. - Japan is accelerating negotiations for a free trade agreement with China and South Korea, capitalizing on the benefits seen from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) [5]. - Japan's internal reports suggest that while losing the U.S. market would be challenging, losing access to the Chinese market would be catastrophic for its economy [5]. Group 3: Financial Leverage - Japan holds a significant amount of U.S. debt, and a large-scale sell-off could lead to a spike in U.S. Treasury yields, creating financial pressure on the U.S. government [7][8]. - The potential for Japan to utilize yen carry trades as a financial weapon could destabilize U.S. financial markets if Japan were to raise interest rates or strengthen the yen [8][9]. - The current geopolitical landscape, where the U.S. relies on Japan to counter China, gives Japan leverage in its negotiations with the U.S. [9]. Group 4: Global Trade Dynamics - The ongoing trade war has seen China emerge as a strategic pivot for other nations, with Japan and the EU considering similar tactics to delay U.S. demands [14][16]. - The U.S. is facing increasing isolation as allies like Japan and the EU begin to push back against its trade policies, leading to a potential weakening of U.S. economic dominance [16][18]. - Recent data indicates that while U.S. tariff revenues have increased, the trade deficit has also widened, suggesting that the current strategy may not be effective [18].