假期突发！不可能发生事居然发生了？

Group 1: Asian Currency Surge - The New Taiwan Dollar surged 4.6% against the US dollar, reaching a high of 29.64, the highest since June 2022, with a weekly appreciation of 5.5% [1] - The Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso also saw gains, with the Peso rising 0.3% to 55.465, the highest since September 2024 [1] - The offshore Chinese Yuan broke the 7.20 mark against the US dollar for the first time since November, with a two-day increase of nearly 900 points [1] Group 2: Factors Behind Currency Movement - Key factors driving the rise in Asian currencies include the increasing probability of a US economic recession, which may lead to lower interest rates [3] - Exporters are anticipating further depreciation of the US dollar, prompting them to sell off their dollar holdings [3] - Positive economic fundamentals in Asia, such as record travel data from China, are expected to inject more growth momentum [3] - Increased foreign exchange hedging operations by Taiwanese life insurance companies are also contributing to the currency strength [3] Group 3: Dollar Index Trends - The US dollar index has dropped below the 100 mark, currently at 99.6386, with an 8% decline this year, raising questions about the potential onset of a new bear market [4][6] - Historical trends indicate that the dollar index has experienced multiple bull and bear cycles, with the current period potentially signaling a shift [6] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil opened down 5% due to OPEC+ announcing an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day [7][9] - Major investment banks have revised their oil price forecasts downward, with Goldman Sachs predicting an average Brent crude price of $60 per barrel for 2025 [9] - The market is anticipating an oversupply of oil, leading to a potential price war and increased volatility in the oil sector [12]