两天飙升6.5%，新台币“大地震”

Core Viewpoint - The rapid appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) by 6.5% over two days has created significant pressure on Taiwanese life insurance companies, which hold substantial amounts of U.S. debt, prompting urgent discussions with financial regulators [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Life Insurance Companies - Taiwanese life insurance companies are among the largest holders of U.S. debt in Asia, and the recent NTD appreciation has led to panic-driven hedging against dollar exposure, potentially triggering a financial storm due to significant currency mismatches [1][2]. - As of January this year, Taiwan's foreign exchange reserves reached $1.7 trillion, over 200% of its GDP, with life insurance companies managing around $700 billion of this in their investment portfolios [2]. - The recent NTD appreciation poses risks of potential losses and cash flow issues for these companies, as they had only hedged about 65% of their assets against currency fluctuations, a near historical low [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Response - The Financial Supervisory Commission has requested major life insurance companies to discuss the operational impacts of the NTD's rapid appreciation and assess their strategies for managing foreign exchange risks [1][4]. - The Central Bank of Taiwan's Governor has indicated that intervention in the currency market may occur if exchange rate fluctuations threaten market stability, although significant intervention is currently challenging due to external pressures [1][3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The surge in the NTD has been driven by exporters selling off dollars, influenced by market expectations of further NTD appreciation, which has led to a collective hedging response from life insurance giants [2]. - The prolonged period of dollar appreciation had previously benefited life insurance companies through yield gains and capital appreciation, but the recent NTD strength threatens to undermine these returns [2].