离岸人民币升破7.19释放积极信号，贬值压力最大阶段已过

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has shown strong performance against the USD, with significant appreciation driven by a softening stance from the US on tariff issues and positive economic indicators from China [1][4][6]. Exchange Rate Performance - On May 5, the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate rose above 7.19, reaching a high of 7.189, marking the first time since November 2024 that it surpassed this level [1][3]. - During the "May Day" holiday, the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.9% against the USD [1][6]. - As of May 5, the offshore RMB was reported at 7.2036, with a daily increase of 0.11% [3]. Economic Indicators - In Q1, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with imports and exports totaling 10.3 trillion RMB, a 1.3% increase [6]. - The positive economic data has provided strong support for the RMB exchange rate [6]. Policy and Market Sentiment - Analysts attribute the recent strength of the offshore RMB to expectations of a more dovish US Federal Reserve and signals of easing tensions in the US-China trade war [4][8]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has emphasized maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate and managing market expectations effectively [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the onshore RMB may experience a rebound following the "May Day" holiday, influenced by ongoing US-China trade negotiations and the USD's performance [8]. - The RMB is expected to exhibit a dual-directional fluctuation against the USD, with potential for smaller amplitude movements [8].