高盛 | 中国房地产预测报告（附下载）

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its forecasts for the real estate sector and covered developers due to the immediate impact of tariff measures on employment and household income, delaying the stabilization of housing prices in first- and second-tier cities to mid-2026 [2][4]. Group 1: Market Forecast Adjustments - The forecast for total housing sales volume in 2025E-2026E is expected to drop to levels comparable to 2010-2011 and 2014, with primary market GFA sold projected at 894 million sqm in 2025E, down from previous estimates [3][11]. - Property sales in RMB trillion are forecasted to decline from 11.7 in 2023 to 8.4 in 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 13% [3][11]. - Average selling prices (ASP) in the primary market are expected to decrease by 5% in 2025E and 3% in 2026E, stabilizing by the end of 2026E [3][11]. Group 2: Secondary Market Insights - The secondary market is anticipated to face significant pressure, with sales volume expected to decline by an average of 13% for 2025-2027, driven by widening bid-ask spreads and deteriorating supply quality [4][15]. - The average ASP in the secondary market is projected to decrease by 7% in 2025E and 4% in 2026E, reflecting weakened demand-supply dynamics [17][21]. - The turnover rate in the secondary market is estimated to drop by 0.3 percentage points nationwide from 2024 to 2026E, indicating a contraction in market activity [16][20]. Group 3: Developer Performance and Strategy - Goldman Sachs has lowered the core EPS forecasts for covered developers by 4%-6% for 2025-2027, reflecting pressures from sales scale, profit margins, and land reserve quality [4][55]. - Developers are increasingly focusing on land banking in core cities, with over 80% of total land acquisition value in 2024 concentrated in the top-10 cities, indicating a strategic shift towards higher-quality land [40][54]. - The average gross profit margin (GPM) for new acquisitions in 1Q25 is estimated to show a 7 percentage point improvement compared to previous reported figures, suggesting a potential recovery in profitability for developers [51][55].