新常态下的中国消费-麦肯锡

Core Insights - The report by McKinsey highlights the characteristics and trends of China's consumer market under the "new normal," indicating a shift to single-digit growth since Q2 2025, despite perceptions of consumer confidence issues and consumption downgrade [8][10][33] Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumer Behavior - China's GDP is projected to maintain approximately 5% growth in Q1 2024-2025, with resilience in domestic consumption, particularly in tourism, dining, and home appliance sectors [11][33] - Consumer expectations for growth in 2025 are cautious, with a forecasted growth rate of 2.3%, nearly unchanged from 2024's 2.4%, driven by urbanization and stable consumption-to-income ratios [11][12] - Urbanization is progressing, with urbanization rates increasing from 65.2% in 2022 to 67.0% in 2024, contributing to household growth [11][12] Group 2: Consumer Confidence Trends - Consumer confidence has stabilized, with 81% of respondents aware of recent economic stimulus policies expressing greater confidence in the macroeconomic outlook [16][21] - Rural consumers show increased confidence, benefiting from government policies, while urban affluent seniors and low-income millennials in tier-one and tier-two cities exhibit declining confidence [21][24] - The overall optimism among consumers is reflected in three-quarters of respondents maintaining a positive outlook on the economy [21][22] Group 3: Shifts in Consumer Priorities - Consumers are increasingly focusing on personal achievement, with spending decisions more influenced by personal asset values and income rather than general confidence levels [28][33] - Wealthy urban consumers plan to increase daily spending by 2.6% in 2025, prioritizing high-quality living and personal fulfillment through significant purchases and experiences [28][33] - The report indicates a growing complexity and differentiation in the consumer market, necessitating strategic adjustments by companies to capture emerging opportunities [33]