【真灼港股名家】非农数据后 预期美联储降息时间再延后

Group 1 - The upcoming FOMC meeting is crucial following the employment report released last Friday, which showed non-farm payrolls at 177,000 for April, down from a revised 185,000 in March, with a downward adjustment of 58,000 jobs [2] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month, lower than the 0.3% increase in March [2] - Job vacancies in the U.S. fell significantly in March to the lowest level in six months, and ADP private sector employment data was disappointing, alongside a notable rise in weekly unemployment claims [2] Group 2 - The ISM manufacturing survey indicated continued contraction in factory activity for April, and first-quarter GDP showed a decline of 0.3% [2] - The healthy growth in non-farm payrolls and stable unemployment rate has led the Federal Reserve to believe there is no immediate need to lower interest rates [2] - Following three rate cuts totaling 100 basis points last year, the Fed has maintained its benchmark rate at 4.25%-4.5% [2] Group 3 - The better-than-expected employment report has shifted traders' expectations for the first Fed rate cut in 2025 from June to July, with the probability of a rate cut on June 18 now at 31.8%, down from 50.4% prior to the report [3] - The likelihood of a first rate cut in July has increased from 47% to 57% following the report [3] - Traders anticipate a 25 basis point cut in either of the two months, lowering the federal funds rate to between 4% and 4.25% [3]