“五一”假期外盘商品表现分化 市场人士提醒投资者注意风险控制

Group 1: Global Market Trends - During the "May Day" holiday, global stock markets experienced a broad rally, driven by easing trade tensions and better-than-expected earnings reports, leading to a rebound in U.S. stocks [1] - Commodity markets showed increased divergence, with oil prices plummeting due to OPEC+ production increases, while precious metals retreated as safe-haven demand waned [1][2] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - OPEC+ unexpectedly raised its production increase from 140,000 barrels per day to 411,000 barrels per day, leading to significant downward pressure on oil prices, which are expected to remain weak in the short term [1] - Domestic energy products such as asphalt, fuel oil, and polyolefins may face cost collapse risks post-holiday, necessitating attention to downstream inventory replenishment and maintenance effects [1] Group 3: Commodity Specific Insights - High-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oil prices are expected to decline less than crude oil due to easing supply tensions in overseas markets, while the price spread between low-sulfur and high-sulfur fuel oil is unlikely to narrow further [2] - Precious metals, particularly gold, have seen a decline due to reduced safe-haven demand and a stronger dollar, with COMEX gold closing at $3,247.4 per ounce on May 2 [2] - Agricultural products, particularly U.S. cotton, rebounded significantly due to easing tariff policies, although domestic cotton prices may remain weak due to macroeconomic pressures [2][3] Group 4: Palm Oil and Soybean Market - CBOT soybeans have rebounded, while palm oil prices continue to decline, with Malaysian palm oil inventories expected to rise due to seasonal production increases [3] - The price dynamics between soybean oil and palm oil will depend on the speed of palm oil inventory increases and the implementation of U.S. biodiesel policies [3]