Onsemi Stock Confirms Bottom, But What's the Upside?

Core Viewpoint - Onsemi's stock price has reached a bottom, with Q1 results showing a 22% revenue contraction but better than expected performance, leading to raised guidance and an outlook for growth resuming next year [1][10][13] Financial Performance - Q1 revenue contracted by 22%, with the PSG segment experiencing the worst decline at 26%, followed by ISG at 20% and AMG at 19% [10] - Cash from operations exceeded $602 million, representing over 40% of revenue, while free cash flow grew by more than 70% to $455 million [12] - The company is expected to guide for Q2 revenue near $1.45 billion, which is flat compared to Q1, with contraction slowing from 22% to 16% [13] Market Sentiment and Analyst Activity - Analyst sentiment has shifted positively, with a moderate buy rating and a potential upside of 58.8% [11] - Institutional activity showed a reversal from selling in Q1 2025 to buying in early Q2, indicating the stock's decline may have ended [7] - Analysts are expected to reaffirm price targets, which could catalyze a rebound in Onsemi's stock price [6][7] Growth Outlook - Onsemi trades at a low P/E ratio of 10.66, with significant long-term growth potential driven by advancements in automotive technology, industrial applications, AI, and IoT [2][3] - Despite macroeconomic headwinds, the company has a robust outlook for growth, with expectations for acceleration in the coming quarters [4] Shareholder Value - The company has been actively buying back shares, reducing the count by 1.9% sequentially and 3.5% year-over-year, which supports shareholder value [12][14] - The balance sheet reflects improvements in cash flow and a low leverage position, which is expected to continue into 2025 and beyond [14]