国产PE高供应态势延续 引发价格竞争与结构性矛盾

Core Insights - The Chinese polyethylene (PE) market is set to experience a peak in capacity release in Q2 2025, driven by large-scale production from leading companies like ExxonMobil [1][3] - Domestic PE production is expected to reach approximately 8.4037 million tons in Q2 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.42% and a year-on-year increase of 28.14% [3] - The surge in supply will exert pressure on regional supply-demand dynamics and pricing in the short term, while long-term structural contradictions within the industry are becoming increasingly pronounced [3] Industry Trends - Over the past five years, the Chinese polyethylene market has seen significant capacity expansion, entering a new phase of growth since 2020 due to the concentration of large refining and light hydrocarbon facilities [6] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for PE capacity from 2020 to 2024 is approximately 8.46%, while the CAGR for production is about 6.86% [6] - The market is expected to reach a new peak in capacity expansion between 2025 and 2026, primarily driven by coal chemical and coastal refining sectors [6] Competitive Landscape - Increased capacity release will intensify market competition, necessitating companies to optimize costs and differentiate their high-end polyethylene offerings [6] - The northwest region will see heightened competition due to expansions from companies like Baofeng and Taha Refining, leading to increased external shipments and price competition [6] - Shandong is emerging as a key production base for PE, with local supply surplus likely to exacerbate price competition [6] Strategic Considerations - Companies in the northwest (coal chemical) need to focus on optimizing logistics costs, while those in Shandong and South China (refining) should concentrate on high-end product development [6] - Exploring overseas markets is crucial for absorbing excess capacity and optimizing industry structure [6]