Energy Transfer Set to Post Q1 Earnings: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Energy Transfer LP (ET) is anticipated to show improvements in both revenue and earnings for the first quarter of 2025, with a revenue estimate of $23.37 billion, reflecting an 8.07% increase year-over-year, and earnings estimated at 33 cents per unit, indicating a 3.13% increase from the previous year [1][2]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ET's first-quarter earnings is 33 cents per unit, with a year-over-year growth estimate of 3.13% [2]. - For the current quarter (March 2025), the consensus estimate is 0.33, while the next quarter (June 2025) is estimated at 0.30. The current year (December 2025) is projected at 1.40, and the next year (December 2026) at 1.41 [3]. Surprise History - Energy Transfer has missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings in three of the last four quarters, resulting in an average negative surprise of 8.33% [4][5]. Earnings Prediction - The model predicts a likely earnings beat for Energy Transfer, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +1.54% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [6][8]. Factors Influencing Q1 Earnings - The company is expanding its clean power generation capacity, having brought online the first of eight planned 10-megawatt natural gas-fired power plants, which is expected to positively impact earnings [8]. - ET is increasing its liquid transportation and processing capacity, completing significant expansions in the Permian Basin and constructing a new crude oil pipeline, which is likely to enhance first-quarter earnings [9]. - Strong export volumes of liquefied petroleum gas to over 55 countries, with a capacity to export nearly 1.1 million barrels per day, are expected to contribute positively to performance [10]. - Fee-based contracts are projected to generate nearly 90% of the company's earnings, ensuring a consistent revenue stream [11]. Valuation Metrics - Energy Transfer units are trading at a trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA of 10.14X, below the industry average of 11.45X, indicating relative undervaluation [12]. Stock Performance - ET's units have gained 3.4% in the past month, outperforming the Zacks Oil and Gas Production Pipeline – MLB industry's rally of 3.2% [15]. Investment Thesis - Energy Transfer operates a vast network of over 130,000 miles of pipelines across 44 states, positioning the company to benefit from rising U.S. production of oil and gas [18]. - Continued investment in expanding pipeline and processing capacity is expected to reinforce its leadership in the midstream industry, supported by strong LNG export capabilities and growing domestic demand [19][20].