Should You Add COIN Stock to Your Portfolio Ahead of Q1 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - Coinbase Global Inc. is expected to report improved financial results for the first quarter of 2025, with significant increases in both revenue and earnings compared to the previous year [1][2]. Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Coinbase's first-quarter revenues is $2.2 million, reflecting a 33.4% increase year-over-year [1]. - The consensus estimate for transaction revenues is $1,325 million, indicating a 23% increase from the year-ago quarter [8]. - Subscription and services revenues are projected to be between $685 million and $765 million, with the consensus estimate at $707 million [10]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus estimate for earnings per share (EPS) is $2.06, which represents a year-over-year increase of 23.6 [2]. - The most accurate estimate for EPS is $1.93, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -5.23% [5]. Performance History - Coinbase has a history of beating earnings estimates, achieving this in three of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 46.15% [3]. Factors Influencing Results - Increased trading volume due to higher volatility is expected to benefit Coinbase's performance, with trading volume estimated at 404 million, a 29.4% increase year-over-year [6]. - The focus on international expansion, growth in derivatives and spot trading, and integration of USD Coin are likely to enhance revenue streams from trading fees and Stablecoins [7]. Expense Projections - Coinbase anticipates transaction expenses to be in the mid-to-high teens as a percentage of net revenues [9]. - Technology and development expenses are expected to be between $750 million and $800 million, reflecting increased variable expenses [11]. - Sales and marketing expenses are projected to be between $235 million and $375 million due to increased digital marketing spending [12]. Valuation Metrics - Coinbase's stock is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.47, which is higher than the industry's average of 15.29 [16]. Investment Thesis - The company is positioned to benefit from higher crypto asset volatility and prices, along with increased adoption of its services in a pro-crypto environment [19]. - Investments in infrastructure and foundational platforms are expected to optimize operations and drive revenue growth [20].