抄底还是避险？澳洲基金老将Matthew Kidman揭示操盘心法

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment strategy of Matthew Kidman, a senior fund manager at Centennial Asset Management, who has increased cash holdings in response to market volatility and is cautiously optimistic about future investments [1][3]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Kidman raised the cash position of the Level 18 fund to 30% during a period of high market volatility, marking a potential market peak [1]. - Due to concerns over U.S. trade policies, he further increased cash holdings to 50% and shifted focus to large-cap stocks like Coles, Telstra, and AGL Energy for safety [3]. - The fund's flexibility allows for significant adjustments in cash positions, which Kidman views as a competitive advantage [3]. Group 2: Performance and Returns - The Level 18 fund achieved a return of 11.4% over the past year, outperforming the Australian stock accumulation index (2.2%) and small-cap index (1.3% decline) [5]. - Since its inception in 2012, the fund has averaged a net return of 12.2%, surpassing its benchmark of 9.4% [5]. - Recent successful investments include companies like Generation Development Group, RPM Global, and Zip, with notable performances from Bega Cheese, Codan, and ClearView Wealth in March [5]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Kidman is optimistic about the potential for a trade agreement between the Trump administration and major partners, which could prevent a global recession [5]. - He anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Australia may cut interest rates up to five times this year, stimulating household spending and benefiting consumer stocks [5]. - The fund is focusing on retail stocks and local businesses on the East Coast, which are less affected by U.S. tariffs and more favored by investors [6]. Group 4: Caution and Risks - Kidman remains cautious about the economic situation in Victoria, expressing concerns over the state's fiscal challenges and lack of consumer confidence [6]. - He warns of the potential for a significant downturn if a trade agreement is not reached, which could lead to a 25% to 35% decline in corporate earnings and a 30% drop in the stock market from peak levels [6]. Group 5: Background of Matthew Kidman - Kidman transitioned from journalism to investment management, starting his career at Wilson Asset Management before co-founding Centennial Asset Management [3][7]. - The fund initially managed only its own capital, gradually expanding to external investors, and currently manages approximately AUD 230 million, with a cap expected at AUD 300 million [8].