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爱美客(300896):25Q1高基数下收入同比下降 建议关注国内复苏进度及海外并购进展

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a revenue decline in Q1 2025 due to a high base from the previous year, but showed slight sequential growth compared to Q4 2024, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer spending [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 660 million yuan, a decrease of 17.9% year-on-year, but a slight increase of 1.5% quarter-on-quarter from 650 million yuan in Q4 2024 [1] - The gross margin remained relatively stable at 93.9%, with operating expense ratios increasing due to a decline in revenue and new R&D investments [1] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was 440 million yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, but the net profit margin improved to 66.9%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points, primarily due to significant gains from fair value changes in investments and increased other income [1] Acquisition and Growth Potential - The company announced plans to acquire 85% of South Korean REGEN for 190 million USD, which is expected to significantly contribute to revenue and profit starting in 2026 [2] - REGEN reported revenue of 72.23 million yuan and net profit of 29.5 million yuan for the first nine months of 2024, with plans to expand production capacity [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts revenues of 3.3 billion yuan and 3.6 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.2% and 9.1% [3] - Projected net profits for the same years are 2.02 billion yuan and 2.18 billion yuan, with growth rates of 3.1% and 7.7% [3] - The target price is set at 299.47 yuan per share, reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 45x for 2025 and 42x for 2026, emphasizing the company's strong brand and channel advantages [3]