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迈瑞医疗(300760):业绩短期承压 看好国内逐季度复苏和海外持续增长

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 36.726 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.668 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1% [1] - The company faced challenges in the domestic medical equipment sector, leading to slower revenue and profit growth, which fell below market expectations [1] - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 8.237 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14%, with a net profit of 2.629 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 155% [1] Regional Performance - Domestic business declined by 5.10% in 2024 due to tight local fiscal funding, reduced issuance of medical special bonds, and delays in regular bidding for medical equipment [1] - International business grew by 21.28% in 2024, driven by the company's continued breakthroughs with high-end overseas clients and balanced revenue distribution across major global regions, particularly strong performance in developing countries and Europe [1] Product Line Performance - Life Information and Support segment saw a revenue of 13.557 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.11%, although minimally invasive surgery business grew over 30% [2] - In vitro diagnostics revenue reached 13.765 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.82%, with international sales growing over 30% despite domestic challenges [2] - Medical imaging revenue was 7.498 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.60%, with international medical imaging business growing over 15% [2] Future Outlook - The company maintains a "buy" rating, adjusting profit forecasts for 2025-2026 downwards due to macroeconomic factors, while providing initial profit estimates for 2027 [3] - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 13.036 billion yuan, 14.780 billion yuan, and 16.707 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20x, 18x, and 16x [3] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in domestic medical equipment procurement and continued high growth in overseas revenue, supporting a positive long-term outlook [3]