张尧浠：关税避险再起买需、金价如期止跌反弹跟进看涨

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to continue its upward trend, potentially reaching $3500 or higher, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets due to trade tensions and inflation concerns [1][3][8]. Market Performance - On May 5, gold opened at $3239.69 per ounce, reached a low of $3237.44, and closed at $3333.62, marking a daily increase of $93.93 or 2.9% [1]. - The daily trading range was $99.86, indicating strong volatility and bullish momentum [1]. Influencing Factors - The recent rejection of Japan's request for a 10% tariff exemption by the U.S. has heightened market concerns regarding trade and inflation, thereby increasing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3][7]. - The market is also reacting to expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which supports the bullish outlook for gold [8]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that despite significant fluctuations in April, gold maintained an upward trend, closing with a 5.27% increase [10]. - The price remains above the upward trend line established from the 2016 high of $1375 to the 2020 high of $2075, suggesting continued bullish momentum [10]. - Short-term support levels are identified at $3318 or $3300, with resistance at $3370 or $3420 [12]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain in a bullish phase, with potential targets set at $3418 and $3500, supported by technical indicators and market sentiment [13][8]. - The ongoing concerns regarding tariffs and inflation are likely to sustain gold's upward trajectory throughout the year [8].