Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains a positive outlook on Guoshengtang (02273), projecting adjusted net profits of 481 million and 602 million CNY for 2025 and 2026 respectively, with a target price of 52.8 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 67.6% from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q1 2025, the total number of patient visits reached approximately 1.21 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.7% compared to 1.074 million visits in the same period of 2024 [1][2] - The growth in offline business is expected to significantly outpace overall growth, driven primarily by internal contributions, while online growth is slightly lower due to strategic adjustments [2] Group 2: Expansion and Innovation - The company exceeded expectations in store expansion in 2024, adding 4 self-built and 17 acquired locations, entering new cities and Singapore, totaling 79 medical institutions across 20 cities in China and Singapore by the end of 2024 [3] - The company plans to maintain a store expansion rate of 15-20 in 2025, entering 2-3 new cities while continuing its long-term overseas development strategy [3] - The integration of AI technology aims to enhance the supply of quality medical resources and improve operational efficiency, with the launch of an AI-powered expert replication system [3] Group 3: Financial Metrics - The company maintained a gross margin of approximately 30.1% in 2024, despite fluctuations in traditional Chinese medicine prices, with a sales expense ratio of 12.2% and a management expense ratio of 6.1%, indicating effective cost control [4] - The adjusted net profit for 2024 was 410 million CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.8%, with an adjusted net profit margin of 13.2% [4] - The company is expected to see further profit margin improvements as existing store performance continues to grow and new stores ramp up [4]
中金：维持固生堂(02273)“跑赢行业”评级 目标价52.8港元