金十数据7月14日讯，摩根士丹利发表研究报告指，预计固生堂(02273.HK)中期收入增长约17%，经调 整净利润升逾20%，较快的线下增长被较慢的线上扩张所部分抵销。对于2025年全年，摩根士丹利将固 生堂的每股盈测上调4%，预期人工智能收入贡献将抵销相关投资影响，使全年录得经调整净利润4.8亿 元人民币。同时，由于宏观经济不景气和部分地区的报销压力，将2026及27年的每股盈测分别下调9% 和11%，并预计收入与利润增长率分别为高双位数百分比和约20%，目标价下调13%，由55港元降至48 港元，续予增持评级。 摩根士丹利降固生堂目标价至48港元 维持增持评级 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the innovative drug sector, expecting significant revenue growth and potential profitability for several companies in the first half of 2025 [3][8]. Core Insights - The innovative drug sector is projected to see revenue growth of at least 40% year-on-year for companies such as BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and others, driven by the commercialization of core products [3][8]. - The Pharma sub-sector is expected to experience a revenue growth rate of 10-15% for companies like Hansoh Pharmaceutical and China Biologic Products, while others may see growth of 5-10% [3][8]. - The medical services sector is anticipated to have a revenue growth of 15-20% for companies like GuoShengTang, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions [3][8]. Summary by Sections Innovative Drugs - Companies expected to achieve over 40% revenue growth in 1H25 include BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and others, primarily due to the commercialization of key products [3][8]. - Some companies, such as BeiGene and Innovent Biologics, are likely to reach profitability due to increased sales volume [3][8]. - The report highlights that companies like Hutchison China MediTech may see significant profit growth due to asset disposals [3][8]. Pharma - The impact of centralized procurement is gradually diminishing, allowing for continued innovation and transformation within the sector [3][8]. - Companies projected to achieve 10-15% revenue growth include Hansoh Pharmaceutical and China Biologic Products, while others like 3SBio and United Laboratories may see 5-10% growth [3][8]. Medical Services - GuoShengTang is expected to have a revenue growth of 15-20% in 1H25, with ongoing attention to domestic and international acquisition activities [3][8].

Group 1 - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 41.4% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI China Index which rose by 25.2% [1] - The upcoming implementation of commercial insurance for innovative drugs is expected to have limited short-term impact but will open up long-term payment opportunities for innovative drugs [1] - The National Healthcare Security Administration has introduced measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, emphasizing comprehensive policy support [1] Group 2 - The commercial health insurance premium income in China is projected to reach CNY 9.773 billion in 2024, reflecting an 8.2% year-on-year growth [2] - The low claims ratio of commercial health insurance, with claims amounting to CNY 3.848 billion in 2023, indicates potential for significant growth in both premium income and claims ratio under supportive policies [2] - The consumption medical sector presents valuation recovery opportunities, with key companies such as Giant Bio, Guoshengtang, and Times Angel being highlighted for their strong product performance and growth potential [3] Group 3 - Recommended stocks for investment include 3SBio (01530), Giant Bio (02367), Guoshengtang (02273), Times Angel (06699), BeiGene (ONC.US), and Innovent Biologics (01801) [4]

固生堂 20250702 摘要 固生堂作为国内领先的中医连锁医疗服务机构，已形成完整的业务闭环， 涵盖线上线下服务，线下机构占比营收 91%，医疗健康解决方案占比 99%。 公司 2024 年经调整净利润为 4 亿元，同比增长 31.4%，剔除股权激励 影响后仍保持稳步增长。市场对中药饮片集采政策存在担忧，但固生堂 可通过业务结构调整和优质优价策略应对。 AI 名中医分身是固生堂的重要创新，解决了名医资源稀缺问题，有望推 动公司业务模式从重资产向轻资产转型，提升运营质量和利润率，并带 来估值空间的提升。 国内中医市场规模预计到 2031 年将达到 1.84 万亿元，复合增速高达 18.2%，受益于人口老龄化、亚健康人群增加、传统文化认同以及政策 支持等因素驱动。 民营中医服务市场高度分散，固生堂市占率仅 0.2%，行业整合机会巨 大。政策推动连锁化、高质量中医服务发展，中药集采是关键政策，连 锁机构具备资本优势。 Q&A 固生堂在中医诊疗领域的优势和发展前景如何？ 固生堂是国内中医连锁服务的龙头企业，经营稳健，深度绑定了名中医，因此 成长底色稳固，业务空间广阔。公司通过早期融资实现了线下机构扩张和线上 平台布 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Guoshengtang, demonstrates strong resilience in performance growth, with a projected revenue increase in the second quarter of 2025 surpassing that of the first quarter due to rapid store expansion and a stable policy environment [1][2]. Group 1: Performance and Growth - In Q1 2025, Guoshengtang's offline patient visits increased by 12.7% year-on-year, showing a month-on-month acceleration trend [1]. - The company plans to open 15-20 new stores in 2025, including self-built and acquired locations, and aims to enter 2-3 new cities [1]. - Guoshengtang's revenue growth in the second half of 2025 is expected to exceed that of the first half due to base effects [1]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - On June 7, 2025, Guoshengtang launched the first national AI digital twin of a traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) expert, Professor Li Hao, which utilizes deep learning from over 40 years of clinical experience [2]. - The company plans to release 20 AI digital twins of renowned doctors in 2025 to enhance overall diagnostic quality and address the shortage of quality TCM resources [2]. - A partnership with Huawei was established in May 2025 to promote AI technology applications in the TCM field [2]. Group 3: Financial Returns and Shareholder Value - In 2024, Guoshengtang returned a total of 420 million yuan to investors through dividends and buybacks, equivalent to 137% of the company's net profit for that year [3]. - As of June 25, 2025, the company has repurchased approximately 85 million HKD worth of shares, representing 1.1% of the total share capital at the beginning of the year [3]. - The company is expected to continue rewarding shareholders through dividends and buybacks due to strong profitability and cash flow [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company is experiencing a robust recovery in revenue growth, with a 12.7% year-on-year increase in offline patient visits in Q1 2025, showing a month-on-month acceleration trend [1] - The company plans to accelerate its store expansion, aiming to open 15-20 new stores in 2025, including both self-built and acquisitions, and is also focusing on overseas expansion [9] - The company has launched its first AI digital twin of a renowned traditional Chinese medicine doctor, which is expected to enhance the overall diagnostic quality of its medical team [9] - The company is increasing the proportion of self-paid income, with limited impact from the national collection of traditional Chinese medicine pieces [9] - The company has returned a total of 420 million RMB to shareholders through dividends and buybacks in 2024, which is 137% of its net profit for that year [9] Financial Summary - For FY25E, the company is projected to achieve sales revenue of 3,828 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 26.7% [2] - Adjusted net profit for FY25E is expected to be 482 million RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.4% [2] - The adjusted earnings per share for FY25E is forecasted at 2.04 RMB [2] - The adjusted P/E ratio for FY25 is estimated at 15.2 times [1][2] Price Target - The target price for the company is set at 52.75 HKD, representing a potential upside of 56.3% from the current price of 33.75 HKD [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading domestic chain of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) healthcare services, experiencing rapid revenue growth and profitability improvements, driven by a combination of cultural demand and supportive policies [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Established in 2010, the company has expanded its offline stores in major cities and developed an online platform, becoming a comprehensive TCM healthcare service provider [1]. - The company achieved a revenue of 3.02 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 30.1%, with a net profit of 310 million yuan, up 21.6% [1]. - The offline medical institutions accounted for 91% of the revenue in 2024, indicating a stable growth in its main business [1]. Group 2: Market Potential - The TCM healthcare market in China reached a scale of 378.7 billion yuan in 2023, growing by 15.5%, with the company holding a market share of only 0.2% [1][2]. - The CR5 for the non-public TCM healthcare sector was only 1.5% in 2023, suggesting significant room for growth and market consolidation [1]. Group 3: Medical Resources and Innovation - The company has established deep partnerships with renowned TCM practitioners, including 8 national masters and 79 famous TCM doctors, with a total of 6,052 offline cooperating doctors [2]. - The company is leveraging AI technology to enhance TCM practices, including a project with West China Hospital and Baidu to accelerate the development of clinical evaluation models for traditional Chinese medicine [2]. Group 4: Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share of 1.53, 1.81, and 2.24 yuan for the years 2025 to 2027 [2]. - Based on a 26 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, the target price is set at 43.37 HKD, with an initial "buy" rating recommended [2].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant advancement of AI in the medical field, particularly in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), with the launch of DeepSeek-R1 and its integration into various sectors [1] - The company Guoshengtang has introduced innovative AI products, including "National Medicine AI Avatar" and "AI Health Assistant," aimed at addressing the shortage of quality TCM resources and enhancing patient care [2][3] Company Developments - Guoshengtang launched the "National Medicine AI Avatar," the first digital avatar in the TCM sector, which enhances consultation efficiency by overcoming the limitations of expert availability [2] - The AI Avatar has been trained on thousands of past case data from renowned TCM expert Li Hao, achieving over 90% capability of the expert [2] - By the end of the year, Guoshengtang plans to launch approximately 20 expert avatars and aims to establish the world's first AI internet TCM hospital to serve global patients [2] Industry Impact - The introduction of the AI Avatar addresses the challenges of low talent cultivation rates and long training cycles in the TCM industry, facilitating the growth of young doctors [2][3] - The "AI Health Assistant" enhances the patient experience by providing personalized services before and after consultations, acting as a medical "butler" [3] - Guoshengtang has made significant strides in integrating AI with TCM, having previously launched products like "AI Assistant" and "Smart Tongue Diagnosis" [3] Future Prospects - Guoshengtang plans to further develop AI-based TCM solutions and expand their platform to more medical institutions domestically and internationally, aligning with national strategies for TCM modernization and internationalization [4]

Group 1 - Gushengtang Singapore has entered into a share subscription agreement with Tu Health Care, where Tu Health Care will inject 1.6 million Singapore dollars into Gushengtang Singapore, resulting in ownership stakes of approximately 83.16% and 16.84% respectively [1] - Gushengtang Singapore was established on March 20, 2025, under Singapore law, with a registered capital of 7.9 million Singapore dollars, primarily engaged in research and development, marketing, sales, supply chain services, and operational support [1] - The company plans to designate Gushengtang Singapore as its international business headquarters to enhance overseas business development capabilities and focus on expanding into international markets [3] Group 2 - The investment from Tu Health Care is expected to improve the capital structure of Gushengtang Singapore, support operational scale growth, and enhance its credibility and attractiveness to external investors [3] - This strategic move aims to diversify financing channels and lay a solid foundation for future fundraising efforts [3]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the "National Medicine AI Avatar" product by Guoshengtang represents a significant milestone in the application of AI technology within traditional Chinese medicine, potentially reshaping the service model and competitive landscape of the industry [1][2]. Group 1: AI Product Launch and Impact - Guoshengtang has launched its first "National Medicine AI Avatar," which replicates the capabilities of renowned physician Li Hao, allowing for enhanced patient service and significantly increasing the supply of quality medical care [2][3]. - The AI Avatar product is seen as a breakthrough in addressing the challenges faced by the traditional Chinese medicine sector, such as the scarcity of top experts and long training cycles for new practitioners [6][7]. Group 2: Infrastructure and Resource Development - Since its establishment in 2010, Guoshengtang has developed a proprietary IT system, accumulating extensive medical data, including 17 million patient visits and over 8 million cases, which supports the training and optimization of AI models [4]. - The company has built a network of 8 national masters and hundreds of provincial-level renowned physicians, facilitating real-time feedback and continuous improvement of AI capabilities [4][9]. Group 3: Business Model and Growth Strategy - Guoshengtang aims to transition from a medical service provider to an AI medical platform, creating new revenue streams and growth models through the deployment of AI technologies [7][8]. - The AI Avatar allows the company to serve a larger patient base simultaneously, leading to exponential growth in potential customers and a significant expansion of market size [8]. Group 4: Long-term Value and Competitive Advantage - The integration of AI technology not only enhances service efficiency but also reduces marginal costs, potentially increasing profit margins and overall profitability [8]. - By cultivating young doctors through AI training, Guoshengtang is positioned to dominate talent supply in the industry, enhancing its competitive edge and industry influence [9].