全球金融市场波动加剧：债务风险、政策分化与地缘博弈下多维挑战

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is experiencing turbulence due to a combination of sovereign debt crises, divergent monetary policies, geopolitical conflicts, and commodity price fluctuations, creating a complex risk transmission chain [1] Debt Risk - Global public debt has reached 93.2% of GDP in 2023, an increase of 9 percentage points since before the pandemic, with Argentina, Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, and Japan identified as the most likely candidates for financial crises in the next 6-12 months [3] - High-debt countries are pressured to refinance existing debt, but rising global interest rates are increasing financing costs and compressing fiscal space, which could lead to a liquidity crunch if emerging markets experience a wave of defaults [4] Policy Divergence - There is an increasing divergence in global monetary policy, characterized by the Federal Reserve maintaining a tight stance while other central banks are forced to adjust their policies [5] - The tightening of dollar liquidity and potential crises in Japanese bonds could exacerbate pressures on highly leveraged financial institutions [6] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical conflicts are impacting financial markets through energy price volatility and supply chain disruptions [9] - The price of gold reached a historical high of $3,440 per ounce in May 2025, reflecting investor concerns about tail risks associated with geopolitical tensions [10] Market Performance - Global stock markets are showing mixed performance, with safe-haven assets and risk assets diverging significantly [11] - The Hong Kong stock market is benefiting from expectations of a recovery in Chinese domestic demand and improved US-China trade relations, while commodities are under pressure due to weak demand and insufficient hedging against geopolitical risks [12] Investment Strategies - The financial market is currently navigating through debt risks, policy divergence, and geopolitical tensions, necessitating a dynamic perspective to identify transformation opportunities [13] - Energy prices are experiencing "zigzag fluctuations" due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and escalating Middle Eastern tensions, with WTI crude oil prices down 23.47% year-on-year [14] - The Hong Kong stock market's Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 3.08%, with technology and new energy vehicle companies leading the gains [15]