小摩港股市场回顾：离岸资金流向比在岸更乐观

Market Review - The MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index recorded weekly returns of +2.4% and -0.2% respectively in USD terms, with optimism surrounding US-China negotiations and AI developments driving market sentiment [1] - The Chinese market saw strong tourism activity during the May Day holiday, with flight, train, and hotel bookings experiencing double-digit year-on-year growth [1] - The banking sector faced challenges, with state-owned banks reporting a 3% year-on-year profit contraction for Q1 2025, falling short of JPM's 5% expectations [1] Market Outlook - The MSCI China Index underperformed most global indices in April due to escalating US-China tensions, but has outperformed Asia (excluding Japan), the US, and Japan year-to-date [1] - Expectations for May suggest a range-bound performance for the MSCI China Index, with relative returns likely to improve compared to April [1] - The worst period of US-China tensions appears to be over, supported by China's stable monetary policy and global investor interest in AI-related sectors [1] Industry/Style Performance - The Information Technology sector led gains with a +7.2% increase, followed by Consumer Discretionary (+4.1%) and Communication Services (+2.2%) [1] - The Banking and Real Estate sectors were the worst performers, declining by -2.7% and -2.2% respectively, influenced by weak Q1 2025 earnings and declining real estate sales trends [1] Fund Flows - Offshore ETFs tracking Chinese stocks recorded a net inflow of $369 million from April 28-30, accelerating from a previous net inflow of $164 million from April 22-25 [1] - In contrast, mainland ETFs experienced a net outflow of $1.209 billion during the same period, continuing a trend of significant outflows [1] - EPFR data indicated a net inflow of $247 million into Chinese equities for the week ending April 25, driven entirely by passive funds, while active funds saw a net outflow of $69 million [1] Top Active Fund Transactions - The top active buys included Bank of China-H and BYD-A, while Tencent and Meituan were among the top active sells [6]