高盛：“痛苦行情”已经开始，科技股正反杀全场

Market Overview - Major indices showed strong performance with S&P 500 up 2.9%, Nasdaq 100 up 3.45%, and small-cap index up 3.24% [1] - S&P 500 has recorded its longest winning streak since 2004, recovering all losses since April 2 [1] - Employment data released last Friday was generally positive, leading to a shift in interest rate cut predictions from June to July by Goldman Sachs and other banks [1] Fund Flows and Investor Sentiment - Strong inflows were observed in the tech sector following positive earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta, with "Long Only" investors net buying approximately $1 billion [2] - Despite strong employment data, there was a lack of significant new inflows on Friday, indicating a calmer market [2] - Hedge funds exhibited a mixed trading approach, with some successful short trades and simultaneous long positions [2] Earnings Performance - As of now, 76% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with Q1 EPS growth at 12%, exceeding initial expectations by 6% [2] - Earnings surprises are primarily driven by profit margins exceeding expectations rather than revenue, with an average EPS surprise of 5% and revenue surprise of only 1% [2][3] Sector Analysis Technology Sector - Nasdaq 100 index rose 13% over the past nine trading days, supported by reduced macroeconomic concerns and positive earnings [4] - Public cloud services showed significant growth, with Microsoft Azure's growth accelerating to 35% year-over-year, surpassing market expectations [5] - Capital expenditure data met or exceeded expectations, with Meta raising its full-year capital expenditure guidance [5] Consumer Sector - Despite a strong overall market, guidance from companies in the restaurant, consumer goods, and travel sectors indicated a slowdown in growth trends [6] Healthcare Sector - Positive trends in medical technology and diagnostics continue, while the pharmaceutical sector shows volatility [7] Financial and Real Estate Sector - Commercial real estate insurance pricing faces pressure, and the payment sector remains sensitive to performance [9] Industrial Sector - Industrial companies related to AI and data centers performed strongly, with better-than-expected order trends [10] Energy Sector - Q1 earnings results were mixed, with market preference for companies demonstrating strong execution and capital efficiency despite weak commodity prices [11][12] Summary and Outlook - As of May 9, S&P 500 implied volatility is at a moderate level of 2.25% [13] - Upcoming week will see a decrease in earnings reports, with macro focus shifting to central bank decisions [13]