美债危机的警钟再一次敲响

Group 1 - The core issue in the U.S. Treasury market is a persistent imbalance between supply and demand, exacerbated by increasing fiscal deficits and inflationary pressures [5][12][16] - The recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield reaching 4.5%, is attributed to unexpected tariff increases announced by President Trump, which heightened inflation expectations [1][2][12] - Foreign investors, particularly from Japan and China, have begun to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasuries, raising concerns about potential large-scale sell-offs that could destabilize the market [3][11] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury market has experienced three significant risk events from 2022 to 2024, prompting government intervention to stabilize the situation [6][7] - The recent bipartisan agreement in Congress to raise the debt ceiling and cut government spending is likely to exacerbate the existing issues in the Treasury market rather than alleviate them [10][11][12] - The potential solutions to the Treasury market's challenges include implicit debt defaults or the Federal Reserve expanding its balance sheet to purchase Treasuries, both of which carry significant risks of inflation and market distortion [13][15][16]