大摩分析师警告：特朗普的电影关税将引发大风险！

Group 1 - Trump's proposal to impose a 100% tariff on films produced outside the U.S. has caused concern among investors in major streaming and production companies, leading to stock declines for companies like Netflix and Paramount [1] - Following the announcement, Netflix's stock fell by 1.5% and Paramount's by approximately 0.7%, while Disney and Universal's parent company, Comcast, also experienced a drop before recovering [1] - The White House spokesperson indicated that no final decision has been made regarding the foreign film tariff, and the government is exploring all options to fulfill Trump's directive to "make Hollywood great again" [1] Group 2 - U.S. production companies have increasingly turned to overseas filming for tax incentives and unique locations, with Netflix announcing a $1 billion investment in Mexico over the next four years [2] - The number of European countries offering film production incentives has increased from 17 in 2017 to 36 in 2024, while Asian countries have risen from 7 to 15 [2] - Morgan Stanley's media research head, Benjamin Swinburne, warned that imposing a 100% tariff on some or all film costs would lead to reduced film output and increased costs, ultimately shrinking industry profits [2] - The U.S. film industry's export value reached $22.6 billion in 2023, generating a trade surplus of $15.3 billion [2] - Swinburne raised concerns about the potential impact on projects already in production and questioned whether foreign governments might block U.S. content through theaters or streaming channels, which could significantly affect the global influence of Hollywood content [2]