债市静待方向指引，30年国债ETF(511090)交投活跃，成交额已超30亿元

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF is experiencing a tight balance between long and short positions, with active trading and notable liquidity, indicating a dynamic market environment [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 6, 2025, the latest quote for the 30-year Treasury ETF is 124.75 yuan, with a turnover rate of 18.2% and a trading volume of 3.012 billion yuan, reflecting active market participation [1] - The average daily trading volume for the 30-year Treasury ETF over the past month is 9.767 billion yuan [1] - The current size of the 30-year Treasury ETF has reached 16.561 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Fund Flows - In the last seven trading days, there have been net inflows on four days, totaling 140 million yuan [1] - The latest margin buying amount for the 30-year Treasury ETF is 189 million yuan, with a current margin balance of 238 million yuan [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - According to Ping An Securities, the bond market's direction is influenced by two main factors: changes in tariffs and the sequence and intensity of domestic growth stabilization policies [1] - Potential drivers for the bond market to break out of its current volatility include fundamental data, the implementation of incremental monetary policy, and performance in the equity market [1] - If the wide credit policy falls short of expectations or is implemented later, the funding center is likely to stabilize with a downward trend, and the 10-year Treasury yield may break previous lows [1] - Conversely, if the wide credit policy is prioritized or implemented with strong intensity, the market may face adjustment pressure [1] - The current recommendation is to hold bonds and observe, while also looking for structural valuation opportunities [1] Group 4: Investment Characteristics - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which consists of publicly issued 30-year government bonds [2] - It is considered a good tool for portfolio management, whether for balancing duration or hedging equity positions, with notable trading and allocation value [2] - The ETF has a low trading threshold, allowing individual investors to purchase with a minimum unit of 100 shares, approximately 10,000 yuan [2] - High trading efficiency is noted, with instant execution and the possibility of T+0 intra-day trading [2] - Multiple market makers provide liquidity, ensuring ample trading opportunities [2]