新美联储通讯社：担心通胀失控，美联储可能会暂缓降息

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dilemma faced by the Federal Reserve in responding to the "hasty" tariff policies of the Trump administration, suggesting that the Fed may pause interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve is in a "goalkeeper's dilemma," where maintaining interest rates to combat inflation could further slow the economy, while cutting rates to stimulate growth may exacerbate short-term inflation pressures caused by tariffs or supply shortages [1][2]. - The Fed is closely monitoring labor market changes, with employment data being a crucial reference for decision-making [1][3]. Group 2: Tariffs and Economic Activity - Tariffs may force the Fed to take a more cautious approach, as they could temporarily raise prices and slow economic activity, leading to signs of stagflation [2]. - A key challenge is determining the duration and magnitude of price increases caused by tariffs and potential supply disruptions [2][6]. Group 3: Inflation Expectations Management - Managing inflation expectations is critical for the Fed's communication strategy, especially in a dual challenge of recession and inflation pressures [3]. - If consumers and businesses expect inflation to decline, it can stabilize inflation expectations, making it easier to control inflation [3]. Group 4: Divergence Among Fed Officials - There is a consensus among Fed officials that rate cuts are inappropriate until clear signs of consumer spending slowdown and rising unemployment are observed [6]. - However, there are differing views on whether the price increases from tariffs will be temporary, with some officials suggesting that rate cuts may be necessary if demand weakens significantly [6].