Group 1: Core Insights - The insurance industry is expected to see a gradual alleviation of interest spread loss risks due to continuous improvement in the liability side and strong market savings demand [1] - The ten-year government bond yield has recently dropped to approximately 1.63%, and with the anticipated domestic economic recovery, the pressure on new fixed-income investment returns for insurance companies is expected to ease [1] - The valuation of the insurance sector remains low, with projected 2025E PEV of 0.49-0.79 times and PB of 0.88-1.95 times, indicating a historical low and maintaining an "overweight" rating for the industry [1] Group 2: Q1 2025 Operational Review - Net profit and net asset growth for listed insurance companies experienced short-term fluctuations due to rising interest rates and falling bond markets, with significant differentiation among companies based on their reserve discount rates and VFA model measurement bases [2] - New business structure has improved significantly, with a rapid growth in NBV driven by factors such as reduced preset interest rates and optimized business structures, despite a slight short-term pressure on new single premiums [2] - The agent workforce remains stable, and the contribution of bank insurance channels to NBV is expected to continue increasing as companies' reform efforts yield results [2] Group 3: Property Insurance Insights - The combined ratio for property insurance has significantly improved year-on-year, primarily due to reduced disaster claims, cost-cutting measures, and the clearing of high-risk businesses [3] - Investment returns have faced slight pressure due to rising interest rates and falling bond markets, but improvements in bond-related investment losses are expected from Q2 onwards [3] Group 4: Product Evolution and Future Outlook - The insurance industry has evolved from single protection products to diversified offerings, with significant opportunities in health and long-term care insurance [4] - Learning from overseas markets, there are opportunities for both savings and protection products tailored to local conditions, with a focus on long-term value and investment [4] - The industry is optimistic about the innovative development of health insurance, with dividend insurance being a preferred choice for balancing premium growth and alleviating interest spread loss pressures [4]
东吴证券:险企负债端持续改善 利差损风险逐步缓解