上汽集团(600104)：24年业绩筑底 25Q1实现开门红

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, but showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025, driven by reforms and new product launches [1][2]. Financial Performance - 2024 revenue was 627.59 billion yuan, down 15.73% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.666 billion yuan, down 88.19% year-on-year [1]. - Q4 2024 revenue was 197.11 billion yuan, down 10.96% year-on-year but up 35.19% quarter-on-quarter; net profit was -5.241 billion yuan, down 294.19% year-on-year [1]. - Q1 2025 revenue was 140.86 billion yuan, up 1.55% year-on-year but down 28.54% quarter-on-quarter; net profit was 3.023 billion yuan, up 11.40% year-on-year and up 157.68% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Sales and Market Dynamics - In 2024, the company sold 4.013 million vehicles, a decrease of 20.1% year-on-year, primarily due to intensified industry competition and proactive inventory reduction [1]. - Retail sales in 2024 were 4.639 million vehicles, with over 600,000 units reduced from inventory; new energy vehicle retail sales reached 1.368 million units, up 30% year-on-year [1]. - In Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, wholesale sales were 1.364 million and 945,000 vehicles, respectively, with a year-on-year decline of 17.0% and an increase of 13.3% [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is undergoing significant reforms, including the establishment of a new passenger vehicle segment to enhance efficiency and competitiveness [2]. - A partnership with Huawei for the "Shangjie" brand's first model is set to enter the promotional phase in 2025 [2]. - The company aims to achieve over 4.5 million vehicle sales and over 674 billion yuan in total revenue in 2025 [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upwards, with expected revenues of 717 billion, 778.1 billion, and 826.6 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 12.3 billion, 15.1 billion, and 16.77 billion yuan, respectively [3]. - The target price is set at 23.05 yuan, reflecting a valuation premium due to ongoing reforms [3].