美国巴西大豆：出口变化，国内供应宽松

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean export inspection volume for the week ending April 24, 2025, shows a significant decrease compared to the previous week, while year-on-year figures indicate substantial growth [1] Group 1: U.S. Soybean Export Data - U.S. soybean export inspection volume reached 439,000 tons, down 21.5% from the previous week but up 59.1% year-on-year [1] - Total U.S. soybean export inspections for the 2024/25 season are 43.12 million tons, reflecting an 11.3% increase year-on-year and achieving 86.8% of the annual export target [1] - Shipments to China accounted for 205,000 tons, representing 46.8% of the total export inspections for that week [1] Group 2: Brazilian Soybean Export Data - Brazil's soybean exports from April 1-25 totaled 12.95 million tons, an increase from 9.42 million tons the previous week, compared to 14.69 million tons for the entire month of April last year [1] - The average export price for soybeans was $389.8 per ton, down 8.9% year-on-year [1] - March's export volume was 14.68 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 16.5% [1] Group 3: Market Conditions and Future Outlook - Recent changes in tariff policies have raised concerns about future soybean imports, while Brazil's new season soybeans are arriving, leading to a projected increase in domestic supply [1] - The current tightness in soybean meal supply is expected to ease as Brazilian soybeans arrive, with oil mill operating rates anticipated to rise and inventories to recover quickly [1] - The pressure from Brazil's new season soybeans is increasing, leading to a decrease in price spreads, which may weaken the support for soybean meal prices [1]