甲醇：上周走势不佳 本周或延续弱势

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market continues to show weakness, with futures prices declining and various factors affecting the fundamentals of the market [1] Market Dynamics - As of April 30, methanol futures closed at 2263 CNY/ton, down 1.82% from the previous week [1] - The trading atmosphere in the inland methanol market weakened as pre-holiday stocking ended, leading some producers to lower prices [1] - Port market sentiment improved, with holders showing increased willingness to hold stock, supporting a stronger basis within the month [1] Production and Inventory - Domestic methanol production rose to 2,008,705 tons, an increase of 109,720 tons week-on-week, with a capacity utilization rate of 89.97%, up 5.77% [1] - Inventory levels at sample production enterprises decreased to 283,400 tons, down 26,500 tons or 8.54% [1] - Port inventory increased significantly to 537,400 tons, up 74,200 tons or 16.02% [1] Profit Margins - Overall methanol profits declined, with specific profit margins reported as follows: - Hebei coke oven gas: 500 CNY/ton, down 2.91% - Inner Mongolia coal-based: 238.44 CNY/ton, down 16.80% - Shandong coal-based: 320.44 CNY/ton, down 19.00% - Shanxi coal-based: 317.72 CNY/ton, down 2.48% - Southwest natural gas-based: -180 CNY/ton, up 4.26% [1] Future Outlook - The expected methanol production for the upcoming week is around 2,064,800 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of approximately 92.49% [1] - Sample production enterprise inventory is projected to increase significantly to 331,900 tons [1] - Port inventory is expected to accumulate due to a sufficient arrival of vessels [1] - The methanol market lacks substantial positive fundamentals, with macro expectations improving but remaining limited [1]