美联储会议在即 ‌如何预判美国利率走向？一文读懂美联储政策工具的密码

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's dot plot serves as a crucial tool for market participants to gauge future interest rate movements, despite its non-committal nature [1][2] - The dot plot records anonymous interest rate forecasts from the 19 core members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), reflecting their assessments of economic conditions [2] - The dot plot has been released quarterly since 2012 as part of a policy transparency initiative, included in the Economic Projections Summary [2] Group 2 - A dense cluster of dots in the plot indicates strong consensus among policymakers regarding the interest rate path, while a dispersed distribution suggests internal disagreements and a higher likelihood of policy shifts [4] - The median value of the dot plot is often viewed as the "baseline scenario," but extreme values can signal potential black swan risks [4] - The dot plot's predictive accuracy was notably off in 2022, where the median forecast for the end of 2023 was 4.6%, while the actual peak reached 5.25%-5.5%, highlighting its dynamic nature [4] Group 3 - Supporters of the dot plot, including former Fed Chair Janet Yellen, argue that it effectively conveys policymakers' risk assessment thinking [4] - Critics, such as economist Nouriel Roubini, contend that the dispersed predictions can exacerbate market volatility, referencing the "hawkish dot plot panic" of 2018 [4]