Group 1 - The U.S. bond market is currently influenced by uncertainties surrounding trade policies, leading to a re-evaluation of risk by investors [1][3] - The 10-year Treasury yield has returned to levels seen a month ago, indicating a "mean reversion" that masks deeper market anxieties related to trade negotiations [3][4] - The recent comments from President Trump regarding tariffs on foreign films have added complexity to the already tense trade discussions, making it difficult for the market to establish a coherent narrative [3][4] Group 2 - The market is experiencing a chain reaction due to policy uncertainties, as evidenced by the decline in U.S. stock indices, ending a nine-day streak of gains for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming two-day meeting is anticipated to maintain short-term interest rates in the 4.25%-4.5% range, but there is a notable expectation for a rate cut by December, reflecting a tension between market expectations and reality [3][4] - The long-end yield movements suggest a shift in market logic, as the 10-year Treasury yield is becoming a reflection of trade policies, fiscal deficits, and geopolitical tensions rather than being directly controlled by the Federal Reserve [4][5] Group 3 - The upcoming supply of U.S. Treasuries, including $42 billion in 10-year notes and $25 billion in 30-year notes, will test market resilience amid growing concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies and geopolitical risks [4][5] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies is seen as a "preventive tax" on global capital flows, exacerbated by the Federal Reserve's inaction, leading to market pain during this policy vacuum [5] - The ongoing tensions in global trade and financial pricing mechanisms are creating a fragile balance that could be disrupted, posing challenges for modern financial markets in the face of de-globalization [5]
dbg markets盾博:关税不确定性令美债市场谨慎,长债收益率走高
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-05-06 05:58