盾博dbg markets：特朗普贸易战撕裂美联储政策与美元霸权

Core Insights - The U.S. economy is at a crossroads, facing a dilemma of slowing growth and inflationary pressures, which is challenging the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of full employment and price stability [1] - The aggressive trade protectionism initiated by the Trump administration is creating a triple policy conflict, impacting inflation, investment confidence, and the credibility of U.S. monetary policy [3] Economic Conditions - The long-term U.S. Treasury yield premium has risen significantly, with the 10-year Treasury yield exceeding the federal funds rate by 135 basis points, the highest level since 2019, indicating investor compensation for policy uncertainty [3] - The market is showing caution towards U.S. dollar assets, as evidenced by the weakest demand for 30-year Treasury auctions since March 2020 [3] Dollar Dynamics - The dollar is facing dual pressures: a trend towards "de-dollarization" and a loss of credibility in the Federal Reserve's policies, leading to expectations of continued depreciation of the dollar index by 2025 [4] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making is becoming increasingly complex, with market expectations for a potential 100 basis points rate cut by the end of the year, reflecting underlying economic contradictions [4] Policy Challenges - The ultimate test of policy decisions is approaching, as third-quarter economic data may confirm the negative impact of trade tensions on consumption and investment, forcing the Federal Reserve to choose between maintaining restrictive rates or succumbing to political pressure for rate cuts [5] - The uncertainty surrounding these policy decisions is becoming a new source of market volatility, with the correlation between the VIX fear index and the dollar index reaching its highest level since the pandemic began in 2020 [5]