强现实与弱预期博弈 沪锡延续震荡【5月7日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Group 1 - During the May Day holiday, the international metal market showed a low-to-high trend, with overall fluctuations being minor compared to the pre-holiday closing prices. Specifically, the price of tin on the London market decreased by 1.48% compared to the pre-holiday period [1] - The domestic tin market was inactive during the May Day holiday, with market participants adopting a wait-and-see attitude. The downstream processing enterprises had a weaker purchasing intention before the holiday, primarily focusing on essential purchases [2] - In April, China's refined tin production saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.52% and a year-on-year decline of 8.13%, attributed to a tightening supply chain of tin concentrate and scrap tin, which imposed rigid constraints on production capacity [1] Group 2 - The supply pressure of tin mines in May remains challenging, with global inventories continuing to decrease, providing support for tin prices. However, the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar is expected to increase supply, potentially limiting the upward price movement [1] - Some tin processing enterprises have gradually resumed production after May 3, starting to fulfill post-holiday orders. These enterprises had previously stocked up on sufficient inventory at lower prices, leading to a cautious approach towards replenishing stock based on market conditions and order situations [2] - The current market commentary suggests that while raw material supply is tight, consumption expectations have been revised downwards, indicating that the corrected supply-demand balance is not significantly imbalanced, and prices may continue to fluctuate widely [2]