林毅夫：人才、国内大市场、产业链配套齐全优势支撑中国经济5%增长预期

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Lin Yifu emphasizes the potential for continued economic growth in China, despite facing challenges such as aging population and US-China trade tensions, suggesting a growth rate of 5% to 6% until 2035 and 3% to 4% from 2036 to 2049 [3][4][5] Group 1: Economic Growth Potential - Lin Yifu highlights that China's growth potential can be measured by the gap in GDP per capita compared to the US, indicating that China has a significant "latecomer advantage" [3][4] - Historical data shows that from 1978 to 2024, China maintained an average growth rate of 8.3%, with GDP per capita reaching $13,445, nearing the high-income threshold [4][5] - Despite challenges, Lin Yifu believes that China's advantages in talent, domestic market, and complete industrial chain can support a sustained growth rate of around 5% [3][4] Group 2: Historical Context and Economic Strategy - Lin Yifu discusses the historical context of China's economic growth, noting that from 1978 onwards, China shifted from a heavy industry focus to labor-intensive industries, leveraging its comparative advantages [4][8] - The narrative of "China collapse theory" is addressed, with Lin Yifu arguing that many developing countries failed due to misaligned economic strategies, while China succeeded through a gradual dual-track reform approach [5][6] - The book "Interpreting China's Economy" is presented as a comprehensive analysis of China's economic development, emphasizing its theoretical, historical, and practical coherence [7][8] Group 3: Publication and Impact - The book "Interpreting China's Economy" has been published in multiple languages and is considered essential reading for understanding China's economic landscape [7][10] - The upcoming edition, set for release in January 2025, will be the fifth version, reflecting ongoing developments in China's economy [10]