智昇黄金专题：美元信用缺失 黄金牛市难改

Core Viewpoint - The recent easing of trade tensions has led to a correction in gold prices, which had previously surged due to escalating trade conflicts and geopolitical uncertainties [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - In early April, the U.S. announced reciprocal tariff measures, significantly escalating global trade tensions and driving gold prices to reach $3,500 [1]. - By mid to late April, signals from the Trump administration indicated a de-escalation in trade tensions, which, along with negotiations regarding the Iran nuclear issue and the Ukraine conflict, contributed to a decline in gold prices to around $3,260 [3]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Trump administration's tariff policies have raised concerns among international investment banks and the Federal Reserve regarding the uncertainty of the U.S. economy, leading to a downward revision of growth forecasts [4]. - Federal Reserve officials have hinted at potential interest rate cuts, with indications that a rate cut could occur as early as June if economic data supports such a move [4]. Group 3: Dollar Credibility and Gold Prices - The imposition of tariffs has disrupted normal international trade, prompting a shift towards non-dollar settlements, which undermines the credibility of the U.S. dollar [5]. - The U.S. is facing a significant fiscal challenge, with $9.2 trillion in debt maturing this year and a projected budget deficit of approximately $2 trillion, raising concerns about the ability to meet these obligations [5]. - Analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve may resort to printing money to purchase debt, further eroding the dollar's credibility and supporting a continued rise in gold prices [5].