离岸人民币对美元汇率走强 政策发力+消费复苏点燃升值引擎

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the offshore RMB against the USD is primarily driven by improved expectations regarding US-China trade negotiations and strong domestic consumption data during the May Day holiday [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Driving RMB Appreciation - The offshore RMB against the USD rose significantly, breaking the 7.20 mark, reaching a high of 7.1864, the highest since December 2024 [1]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce noted a softening stance from the US regarding tariff negotiations, which has positively influenced the RMB's strength [1]. - The Central Political Bureau's call for proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize employment and market expectations has provided additional support for the RMB [1]. Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - The consumption data during the May Day holiday exceeded expectations, with travel indicators hitting historical highs, contributing to the RMB's appreciation [2]. - Increased domestic consumption and investment, including from foreign visitors, are seen as internal support for the RMB's value [2]. Group 3: Global Currency Dynamics - Concurrently, the USD index has declined, dropping below 100 to a low of 99.6258, indicating weakening confidence in the USD and its credit system [2]. - There is a growing expectation that global capital will increasingly favor RMB assets due to narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The RMB may experience a dual-directional fluctuation against the USD, but with relatively smaller amplitude compared to other major currencies [2]. - The potential for a more flexible and pragmatic US stance on tariffs suggests that the most significant depreciation pressure on the RMB may have passed [3].