LYCG(SH:600491) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-05-06 12:37Core Viewpoint - Longyuan Construction reported a revenue of 9.119 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.27%, but a net loss attributable to shareholders of 663 million yuan, an improvement from a loss of 1.311 billion yuan the previous year. In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.393 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 49.4%, but a net profit of 193 million yuan, compared to a loss of approximately 3.68 million yuan in the same period last year [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company faced financial pressure due to funding shortages, but there are signs of marginal improvement in fundamentals, such as a continuous reduction in contract assets and a shift from credit impairment losses to gains. By the end of 2024, the company's PPP assets were approximately 34.1 billion yuan, and contract assets were 12.2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, showing a consistent decline [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company recorded asset disposal gains of 251 million yuan, primarily from government storage of its subsidiary, Dadi Steel Structure. The fiscal policy is expected to remain loose, potentially contributing to further non-operating gains in the coming quarters [2]. Strategic Developments - The successful completion of the private placement to Hangzhou Transportation Investment Group (HTIG) is anticipated to bring in new orders and reduce costs. HTIG will invest 1.846 billion yuan and become the largest shareholder with a 29.51% stake, which is expected to catalyze the company's fundamentals [2]. - The company signed new contracts worth 396 million yuan in Q1 2025, the lowest since 2018, primarily due to funding shortages. With HTIG as a major shareholder, the company is expected to gain a share in the key project construction market in Hangzhou, which is valued at approximately 200-300 billion yuan annually [2]. Cost Management - The company's financial expenses for 2024 were 1.521 billion yuan, with a financing cost of about 7.40%. It is anticipated that with HTIG's involvement, the financing cost may significantly decrease as state-owned enterprises typically have lower average financing costs [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - As a domestic infrastructure player, the company is less affected by export tariffs and fluctuations in household income. With the support of debt reduction policies, initial signs of fundamental improvement were observed in Q1 2025. The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.0 billion yuan and 16.15 billion yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, maintaining a "strongly recommended" rating [3].