米奥会展(300795)：短期业绩承压 看好后续业绩拐点

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at 751 million yuan and net profit at 155 million yuan, representing year-on-year decreases of 10.01% and 17.55% respectively [1][2] - In Q1 2025, the company experienced a significant drop in revenue and net profit, with figures of 17.27 million yuan and -36.79 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 77.32% and 864.17% respectively [1][2] Performance Analysis - The decline in 2024 performance is attributed to high base effects from 2023, which was a year of strong recovery post-pandemic, and cautious spending by exporters due to macroeconomic uncertainties [2] - The company did not hold its own exhibitions in Q1 2025, leading to a substantial revenue drop compared to the previous year when it hosted exhibitions in Indonesia and Vietnam [2] Future Outlook - The company anticipates a significant increase in VIP customer repurchase rates, projected to reach 60% for 2025, up from 36% at the end of Q1 2025, indicating strong customer recognition of the company's exhibition effectiveness [3] - The company plans to hold six self-organized exhibitions in Q2 2025, compared to four in the same period last year, suggesting a potential turnaround in performance [3] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively integrating AI into its exhibition services, launching "AI Exhibition 1.0" which includes various AI applications aimed at enhancing efficiency in exhibition scenarios [4] - The company is also participating in strategic financing for Li Weike Technology to accelerate the development of AI technologies, indicating a commitment to innovation in the exhibition industry [4] Financial Projections - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027, now expecting revenues of 1.06 billion, 1.39 billion, and 1.58 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 270 million, 370 million, and 430 million yuan [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates have been adjusted to 1.18, 1.60, and 1.86 yuan for the years 2025-2027 [5]